Many people have asked me why, of all people, am I voting Brexit. So here it is.
Fundamentally, I just cant see the Tories managing to deal with Brexit, continue austerity, and win the next general election. Even with all the corporate and press backing, even with a divided Labour which isn’t able to take back Scotland.
Meaning Corbyn will end up Prime Minister! This in itself is far more important than whether the best way to rein in the tory cuts/ bonfire of rights is in or out, or whether a better EU is possible or anything else.
- If the result is 52-55% remain in England, and high 50s/60s/70s in Scotland, N. Ireland, Wales, England will have voted to take it and the Celtic Nations out of the EU, against their will.
- Never-the-less a large majority of MPs across the house are against leaving the EU.
- David Cameron will have to step down. (Question is how soon? Will he preside over the leaving negotiations a while? Get them going? If so he’ll have to be seen to be putting his back in to it; a transition to Boris is inevitable.)
- Boris Johnson will have a tricky situation to deal with: he needs to somehow at least be seen to be making progress getting an Act through Parliament to leave the EU, in the face of insurmountable cross-party opposition to it, including his own party of course.
- With one eye on elections in 2020, and another on avoiding elections before then, Boris will have to contend with an angry and impatient public and press on the one hand (whipped up by Farage and a load of his own MPs), and two adversaries with a proven track record in record-breaking land-slides: Jeremy Corbyn and Nicola Sturgeon/The SNP (both of whom campaigned against Brexit but whose political fortunes could be made by it).
- Whilst Corbyn continues his extremely effective anti-austerity real-world barbs against the Tories and their cuts, day-by-day his authority as leader of the opposition grows, and the nonsense the media spews against him loses its credibility.
- (Labour have increased their vote in all by elections so far, won mayoralties in London, Liverpool, Bristol and elsewhere, and did much better than expected in local elections. Whilst they have been decimated in Scotland that merely means the SNP, which shares the vast majority of Labours values and policies, is in direct conflict with the Tories in Holyrood.)
- Meanwhile, The SNP has a valid ‘change of circumstances’ to hold INDE II and will be keeping a very close eye on Scottish inde. Polling: if they see support for independence creeping above 55% they are going to be very tempted to hold another referendum and if they call it, they will win it this time. This all will happen much more quickly than the first time, with the precedent already set. (Also, any rises in oil prices will favour this, and I expect that before long.)
- That then clearly makes Boris Johnson responsible for the break-up of the Union, something that virtually all Tories are going to be very upset about, right in the run-up to the next general election.
- Brexit anyone? Or do you want to spend 900 billion on the next generation of Nuclear Weapons? Invade some more middle-eastern countries? Close down more schools and privatise more hospitals? Cause Corbyn would be spending that money on schools and hospitals and a load of stuff we actually need. And re-joining the EU with some pretty excellent demands for reform and real leverage. (Forget TTIP for example.)
Two very real existential problems confront humanity:
1) climate change is biting and is blatantly going to get a lot worse with each passing year whilst
2) nuclear war is now a greater threat than at any point in my life time, arguably ever.
What does this have to do with Breixt?
Staying in the EU = status quo = neoliberalism and militarism. Increasing inequality, selling-off everything profitable, devastating wars on middle-eastern countries and ‘nuclear sabre rattling’ with Russia, the only nuclear power with a full deterrent. We don’t have time for this. With all haste we need to:
- Reverse Austerity and bring back growth through a Green Marshall plan (i.e. investing in energy efficiency, renewable energy, sustainable food) funded with money saved from slashing boondoggle military spending.
- Build a New Europe of Regions resistant to US attempts to impose corporate control and militarism (epitomized by TTIP and NATO) and friendly towards Russia (our main source of low-carbon energy, gas).
- Respect for International Law and Cooperation: Stabilize the Middle East and North Africa with Russia, China and Iran and various other local parties in a reasonable fashion.
Institutions opposed to this kind of thing by their very nature include:
US, NATO, EU, IMF, WB, UK, The Tory Party, The GOP and The Democrat Party plus all large corporations and all mainstream media.
We (the majority, the people, the 99%) need these institutions to cease to be the all-powerful racket they are, and they are extremely well-resourced and entrenched so it will take series of defeats and set-backs for this to happen.
- Threatens the survival of the EU: already in crisis, major economy leaving certain to make situation worse. Could set precedent.
- Threatens the survival of the UK: In Scotland, if polls start to climb above 50% in favour of Independence after Brexit the SNP/Greens could declare and win second referendum.
- Threatens to decimate the Tory Party, at least in the short-term. (Don’t you just love it?)
- Threatens US control over Europe (through the weakening of the EU and the UK, the most powerful instruments of control over Europe the US has).
- Threatens NATO: France and Germany have elections in 2017 and all this turmoil could see an anti-establishment party capable of unilateral withdrawal from NATO come to power.
- Could see an Independent Scotland withdraw from NATO (with the UK’s nuclear weapons!).
- Propel Corbyn to power in 2020 as the Union with Scotland breaks and the Tories scratch each other’s eyes out. (Maybes even before!)
- Brexit!!!!!! Brexit!!!!!! Brexit!!!!!!